Daily to Derby

Your morning briefing on the road to the Kentucky Derby

Edition No. 12 · Tuesday, April 21, 2026

11 Days to Derby

🏇 Work Tab

"Looked Like a Sovereignty Work to Me"

Seemingly every year at Derby time there's a workout that gets people talking and keeps people talking. Often there is signal in it, and sometimes it can even have an effect on the market — that could be bad news for people thinking they might get a bigger price on Chief Wallabee.

Bill Mott's colt worked five furlongs in 1:00 Monday morning at Churchill Downs with jockey Junior Alvarado aboard, wearing blinkers for the second time. The fractions were sharp — :24.80, :36.60, :48.20 — and the gallop-out was strong: six furlongs in 1:12, seven-eighths in 1:26.60.

Mott was more than pleased. He told DRF's David Grening: "I thought it was very good, extremely good. Looked like a Sovereignty work to me when he worked two weeks before the Derby."

That's the trainer who won this race last year comparing this horse to that one. In the same window. On the same track.

Alvarado: "He was pretty smooth. Very kind, and he finished up the work just as we were expecting. Very strong today," per BloodHorse.

Our clocker Chris Cupples confirmed the visual — Chief Wallabee looked exceptional. Mott doesn't expect much more from him before Derby Day. One more breeze next Sunday or Monday and he's ready to go.

The hype got to the point where our friend Matt Dinerman tweeted sarcastically that he was "shocked" he hadn't seen a single post about it. At 12/1 to 16/1 on Oddschecker, that price may not last.

🎬 New on ITM

Every Derby Winner of the 21st Century, Ranked

And now for something completely different. We don't do a lot of trend following over here at ITM — we tend to march to the beat of our own drummer — but when it comes to YouTube ranking/tier lists and the Kentucky Derby, well, we just couldn't resist.

I had a really fun chat with Duke Matties of dukespicks.com yesterday where we ranked all the Derby winners of the 21st Century. There are some VERY controversial takes in here. Watch and let us know what we got right and wrong in the comments.

▶ Watch on YouTube

And head over to dukespicks.com to watch the special live stream we are doing Derby week. The code ITM10 gets you a discount.

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📄 Free Content

Free Contender Profiles Are Dropping

We're publishing free written profiles on every major Derby contender. Four are live now: Renegade · Commandment · Further Ado · The Puma. More dropping daily.

🔄 Field Watch

Three More Out, Chip Honcho All But In

The field continues to shrink. Nearly is out — heading to Centennial Farms for rest after training unsatisfactorily. Bravaro is out — targeting the Mike Lee at Saratoga. Grittiness removed from consideration Saturday. That's four defections in three days. Chip Honcho (49 pts) is all but certain to make the field.

Also today: Sovereignty shipped into Mott's Churchill barn. Incredibolt arrived from Palm Meadows. Emerging Market ships from Payson Park. So Happy ships from Santa Anita. Danon Bourbon arrives in America.

Golden Tempo note from our clocker: Chris Cupples says Golden Tempo surprised Friday at Keeneland with a big step forward — worked with an Englishman and went much easier than previous works. "He looked awful in works prior — had to be pushed along nearly the entire way. Up until Friday." Something clicked. Worth watching.

📣 Derby Week Events