In the Money Media

Kentucky Derby 152 · Road to Churchill Downs

Daily to Derby

Your morning briefing on the road to the Kentucky Derby

Edition No. 14 · Thursday, April 23, 2026

🎰 Wagering

Bet the Preakness Before the Derby

The Preakness Stakes Future Win Bet opens tomorrow and closes on Derby Day — your first chance to bet the second jewel of the Triple Crown before anyone knows who wins the first one. The 40-horse field includes all the major Derby contenders, plus horses pointed directly at Pimlico.

A few morning line prices that caught our eye: Renegade is the 10-1 Preakness favorite — maybe short enough for a horse who could possibly skip the race even if he wins the Derby and seemingly certain to pass if he does not. Iron Honor, Chad Brown's stated Preakness target, is 15-1 alongside Commandment. Further Ado is shorter than both at 12-1. The real Preakness-first horses to watch: Crude Velocity (12-1) and Taj Mahal (12-1), neither of whom is in the Derby field.

This is also the first Preakness Future Wager since CDI acquired the Preakness IP — a story we covered in yesterday's D2D. Check that out if you missed it.

Full field and odds at preakness.com/futurewager. We'll have a full video breakdown coming soon on the ITM YouTube channel.

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📊 ITM Original

Is Todd Pletcher Actually Bad in the Kentucky Derby?

Shortly after we published our deep dive on Todd Pletcher's Derby record, we heard from Paul Matties, Duke's brother. (We're happy to be hosting those two for a Derby week show over at dukespicks.com — use code ITM10 for a discount.) Paul used his proprietary database to measure how each Pletcher runner performed relative to itself in figure terms — did the horse run its number, improve, or regress?

The results are sobering. Of the 58 Pletcher Derby starters Paul had figure data on, 59.6% ran 8 or more points lower than their pre-Derby figure. Among his 14 short-priced starters, the five who essentially ran their number all finished in the top three. The other nine regressed by an average of more than 20 points. The pattern is binary — Pletcher's Derby horses either show up or they don't.

Sadly, this doesn't offer us a whole lot of clarity when it comes to Renegade — but it's certainly interesting.

👉 Read the full article with complete data table

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🎙️ ITM Video

KDBC Preview Show

The Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge is back with a guaranteed $300,000 purse — and John Gaspar sat down with elite tournament players Matt McJunkin and Ryan Petrunyak to break down strategy, bankroll management, and how to gain an edge in horse racing's newest major contest.

👉 Watch the full KDBC Preview Show

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🔄 Field Watch

The Field Is Set

Trainer Michael McCarthy confirmed Stark Contrast will run in the $1 million American Turf on Derby Day. Intrepido moves into the 20th and final Derby slot for Jeff Mullins. The 20-horse field for Kentucky Derby 152 is locked.

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🌅 Churchill Downs

Dawn at the Downs Starts Today

Churchill Downs opens free to the public starting this morning — 6:45 to 10:00 AM daily through April 29. Derby and Oaks horses train 7:15–7:30 AM with named saddle towels: yellow for Derby, pink for Oaks.

Nice scene yesterday: Sovereignty was back in his old stall in Bill Mott's barn. Former Bellarmine coach Scott Davenport held the Derby winner's halter — it'll be auctioned for charity this week.

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📄 Free Content

Free Derby Contender Profiles — 13 Live

Renegade · Commandment · Further Ado · The Puma · Chief Wallabee · So Happy · Silent Tactic · Emerging Market · Fulleffort · Potente · Incredibolt · Albus · Pavlovian

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📣 Derby Week Events

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📋 ICYMI

👉 Yesterday's D2D: "One Company, Two Jewels"

👉 Is Todd Pletcher Actually Bad in the Kentucky Derby?

👉 Renegade Monster Pod with Duke Matties

👉 Free Bris Derby PPs (PDF)

👉 Derby OddsWatch

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